Posted by M. Wright | Filed in: Data
The Census Bureau has released the poverty rate for 2006, “showing the first significant decline since President Bush took office.” This is something I’ve been charting for a while. Here’s what I wrote last year:
According to the press release, America’s poverty rate in 2005 was “statistically unchanged” over the previous year, though if you check the historical table you will see that the percent has dropped from 12.7 to 12.6, indicating that we may have reached a cycle peak in 2004.
Thankfully, my assumption appears to have been correct, with 2004 representing a cycle peak.
In 2006, the U.S. Poverty Rate fell another 0.3 points to 12.3, which mirrors the 6-year average during Bush’s presidency. That means the table below remains unchanged, and the current administration continues to enjoy the fourth-best poverty rate since we began tracking it in 1959.
Poverty Average By Presidency (1959-2006):
Ford: 11.77
Carter: 11.93
Nixon: 12.04
*GWB: 12.32
Clinton: 13.29
GHWB: 13.83
Reagan: 14.08
Johnson: 15.60
Kennedy: 20.80
**Ike: 22.30
*(2001-2006)
**(1959-1960)
August 28th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
A 0.03% decline is not what I would call “significant.” We’ve got some more hard times ahead, and I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by predicting this is not the beginning of a significant long-term reduction in the overall poverty rate.
I’d love to be proven wrong, of course. If I am, you can have half of my lands and my cattle!
August 28th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Check that, 0.3%
August 28th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
But wouldn’t you agree that the significance of a 0.3% drop can only be judged appropriately within the context of the overall trend?
That’s certainly true for those who are alarmed by climate change, with the earth warming less than 1 degree over 100 years.
So the fact that the poverty rate has remained within a one-point range for six years, and within a two-point range for the last eleven years, should add some context.
As I wrote before,
“The [poverty] rate hasn’t moved a full point within one year since 1982, or more than two points within one year since 1966. Over the last 40 years, our poverty rate has held within a two to three point range.”
August 29th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
I would think the almost 1,000,000 that make up that .3% would consider it pretty significant.
January 16th, 2008 at 7:26 am
fuck you